Why two out of five central London workers aren't about to disappear
Plus more damn lies, statistics and vents
This week a consultancy called Advanced Workplace Associates published a report about the future of work in inner London.
The report contained some big juicy statistics that made for some equally juicy headlines, like this one from The Telegraph:
Believe it or not, that number has actually been rounded down from the report’s estimate, which is closer to the 835,000 mark.
That’s two out of every five people working in inner London. That can’t be right, can it?
Well, no. It can’t. For a start, the report surrounds the findings with more hedges than Hampton Court Maze:
“This could mean that up to as many as 835,000 jobs could be relocated from Inner London.”
Which isn’t surprising when you look at how they arrived at that number.
See if you can keep up with us here while we give you our guide to producing an “in-depth review of the latest data”:
Go to Nomis, the Office for National Statistics’ site for labour market stats.
Find the labour market profile for Inner London.
Untick the categories for things like ‘process, plant and machine operatives’ and ‘skilled trades occupations’, so you’re left with things like ‘administrative and secretarial’ and ‘managers, directors’ etc (this won’t take you long, there are only eight categories).
Subtract the number of those people from the number currently working in London.
Pad your report out by including sparkling insights like “prime lunchtime spots in the centre of London such as Pret a Manger or Leon may suffer”.
Go to the pub.
In City A.M.’s article about the AWA report, they call that “an analysis of ONS statistics”, which we guess is technically accurate, but then so is the phrase “Matt Hancock was hard at work”.
These numbers also don’t gel with what the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry found out when they polled “520 business leaders from companies of varying London boroughs, sectors and sizes” (also known as ‘actual research’).
Of those businesses, only two-thirds of them considered any amount of home working an option. And of those that did, just 36% of them said they expected employees to work from home five days a week.
That’s still a pretty high number compared to ‘The Before Times’, but nothing like an ‘exodus’.
So, where are we to turn for trustworthy and thoughtful analysis of London’s future?
How about bankers and estate agents?
In the same article in which they cover AWA’s ‘research’, The Telegraph also quotes The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, who says Londoners are “voting with their feet” by moving to rural and suburban areas.
The Telegraph illustrates this with data from Rightmove showing how house prices in places like Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Essex, Suffolk and Kent have all gone up, some by as much as 25%. Granted, that data is from last year, but it’s hard to see how that trend hasn’t continued through the first half of 2021.
There’s also some data compiled by Savills (from 2021 this time), which shows that the highest number of people working from home is concentrated in London’s “extended commuter belt and second home hotspots” (i.e. Tunbridge Wells and Devon).
We would have gotten away with it, if it weren’t for those pesky kids
Just when you think you’ve got a handle on all this, along comes another report. This one from property consultants JLL, who claim that London’s ‘city life’ is about to bounce back.
According to JLL, it’s perky youngsters, who don’t care about things like gardens and space, who are going to save our city centres.
Okay, we might have over-simplified that a tad, but what this report essentially says is that, although families want all that lovely “dedicated space for home-working and a garden,” the “younger generations” are itching “to return to social, bustling urban centres.”
And bearing in mind that 47% of Londoners are under 35, that is a lot of socialising and bustling to cater for.
So, maybe AWA are right. Maybe central London will become a ghost-town, with tumbleweeds rolling through Timpsons, and wastelands where there once was Wagamamas.
Or, more likely, (to paraphrase Jeff Goldblum) life will find a way and we’ll see a London full of 20-somethings renting flats in Zone 1 and quietly resenting the ageing Gen-Xers who commute in a few times a month via Crossrail to get their fix of the ‘big city’ before scampering back to their Hampshire boltholes.
And the rest…
As we write this there’s no word on what exactly caused that massive fire near Elephant and Castle station on Monday. All we know so far is that it started in the ‘commercial units’ under the station (specifically the T.R. Autos garage). According to the London Ambulance Service, six people were treated at the scene, and one of those was taken to hospital.
If you can stand it, we have more statistics for you. The think tank, Centre For London just published its ‘London Intelligence’ study, which “tells London’s story through data”. There’s a lot in there, but some of the headlines are:
62% of Londoners “feel very or quite comfortable going out in central London at the moment”;
42% say there is a strong sense of community in their local area;
More of us are in a “precarious financial position” than last year, with 48% of Londoners saying they wouldn’t be able to meet an unexpected expense of £500 from their own money.
Crossrail update: Woolwich station has just been ticked off the ‘to do’ list. The formal handing over of Woolwich station to TfL “as a completed station” happened this week, so that just leaves Paddington, Liverpool Street, and Whitechapel to go.
The Guardian has used the publication of a new book called Inventive Vents: A Gazetteer of London's Ventilation Shafts as an excuse to take a deep dive (pun intended) into the “vents, shafts and funnels that help the city breathe in all manner of disguises”.
Cult Cardiff ramen restaurant, Matsudai Ramen is going to be taking its noodles on the road this summer, stopping in Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff before arriving at the BFI Bar & Kitchen on July 30th and 31st, along with ‘special guests’ Supa Ya Ramen. Tickets went on sale yesterday, but there might be a few left if you’re quick.
Stylist have interviewed Michelle Sparman, the woman behind Fit SW11 Apparel, “London’s first charity bank dedicated to providing free fitness clothing, shoes and equipment to women facing financial difficulties.”
